SentinelA Qatalyst Module
FRAMEWORK & PROVENANCE

Every threshold, cited.

Sentinel is a screening layer for ICVCM Core Carbon Principle #5 — Sustainable development benefits and safeguards. Every signal we surface maps to a sub-criterion. Every band has a source. Where we proxy, we name the proxy and the upgrade path.

ICVCM CCP #5UNDRIP · ILO 169Cancun SafeguardsTI CPI 2024Sabin Center · World Bank · FAO
THE FRAME

ICVCM Core Carbon Principles, March 2023 — Principle #5

CCP #5 — Sustainable development benefits and safeguards — requires carbon-crediting programs to put in place robust social and environmental safeguards. In practice, the principle covers four obligations:

— Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market, Core Carbon Principles, Assessment Framework, March 2023. Wording paraphrased; full text at icvcm.org.

We don't claim to be CCP-certified. We claim to be a defensible first-pass screen for a CCP-aligned DD process. Every signal below maps to a sub-criterion of CCP #5.

PER-SIGNAL PROVENANCE

Seven signals. Seven anchors. Zero invented thresholds.

01 · SIGNAL

Indigenous-territory overlap

Anchor

UNDRIP Articles 10, 19, 32 · ILO Convention 169

Threshold

Any overlap → flag. Number of overlapping nations contributes (capped at 2).

Why this threshold

Binary detection is the standard for FPIC scoping; severity is left to the analyst.

Proxy used today

Native Land Digital (free tier deprecated late 2025; bundled overlay used for sample projects)

Upgrade path

Wire Native Land paid API key for full coverage.

02 · SIGNAL

Adverse media — topic + claim

Anchor

ICVCM CCP #5 — 'identify, prevent and mitigate adverse social or environmental impacts'

Threshold

Article scores as adverse only if title contains BOTH a safeguards-topic keyword AND an adverse-claim keyword. NGO-domain articles +1.

Why this threshold

Topic+claim co-occurrence kills the 'Project secures FPIC' false positive that plagued single-keyword scoring.

Proxy used today

GDELT 2.0 DOC API + Google News RSS, English-language

Upgrade path

LLM-per-article claim classifier; multilingual sources

03 · SIGNAL

Active litigation

Anchor

Sabin Center for Climate Change Law — Climate Case Chart (cited in IPCC AR6 WG3 Ch. 15)

Threshold

Any case matched by project name or developer → flag (+3 per case).

Why this threshold

Sabin Center is the field-standard climate-litigation registry.

Proxy used today

Curated subset + auto-promotion from news inference

Upgrade path

Severity weight by stage: injunction > pending > dismissed

04 · SIGNAL

NGO complaints

Anchor

Carbon Market Watch · Survival International · Forest Peoples Programme · Rainforest Foundation

Threshold

Any complaint from curated ledger or NGO-domain news → flag (+2 per).

Why this threshold

These four NGOs are the orgs most cited by Bloomberg, FT, NYT and Mongabay on carbon-project complaints.

Proxy used today

Curated ledger + auto-promotion

Upgrade path

Direct NGO-feed integration

05 · SIGNAL

Environmental — forest-cover trend

Anchor

World Bank, Forest Area (% of land area) — indicator AG.LND.FRST.ZS · FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 2020

Threshold

≤ −0.3 pp/yr → RED · −0.3 to −0.05 → AMBER · > −0.05 → GREEN

Why this threshold

FAO characterises annual net loss > 0.3% as 'high deforestation rate.' The amber threshold reflects sustained non-trivial loss.

Proxy used today

Country-level, not project-polygon

Upgrade path

Project-polygon GLAD alerts via Global Forest Watch

06 · SIGNAL

Governance — TI CPI

Anchor

Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index 2024

Threshold

CPI < 30 → RED (TI 2024: 'serious corruption problems') · 30–42 → AMBER (below TI 2024 global avg of 43) · ≥ 43 → GREEN

Why this threshold

Every threshold cites a TI-published figure — no invented cut-offs.

Proxy used today

Country-level enabling-environment proxy, not project-level read

Upgrade path

Add World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) Control-of-Corruption percentile

07 · SIGNAL

FPIC procedural checklist

Anchor

UNDRIP Articles 10/19/32 · ILO Convention 169 · UN-REDD FPIC Guidelines 2013 · Cancun Safeguards (UNFCCC 1/CP.16, Appendix I)

Threshold

4 checks: Consultation · Consent · Grievance mechanism · Withdrawal protections. ≥2 fails → RED · 1 fail → AMBER · only insufficiencies → AMBER · clean → GREEN.

Why this threshold

Mirrors the UN-REDD operational FPIC checklist. A screen defaulting to 'insufficient' is honest — public signals don't replace project-document review.

Proxy used today

Derives from already-gathered evidence (territory, news, litigation, NGO)

Upgrade path

Direct evidence ingestion: PDD, monitoring reports, FPIC consultation records

COMPOSITE VERDICT

Rule-based. Not a model.

The composite is a transparent heuristic — an analyst can read the score breakdown line-by-line in services/score.py. We chose rule-based over a learned model because rule-based scores are litigation-defensible. A model's “0.73 risk score” is not.

The three breakpoints below are heuristic — they balance signal severity against false-positive rate. They are not claimed to be industry-standard; they are claimed to be transparent and tunable.

SCORE ≥ 8
RED · HIGH risk

Material safeguards concerns surfaced. Deep DD before any commitment.

SCORE 3 – 7
AMBER · MEDIUM risk

Some signal. Targeted follow-up on the specific flag.

SCORE < 3
GREEN · LOW risk

No adverse signal detected in the public-evidence layer.

HONESTY GUARDRAILS

What we do not claim.

We are not ICVCM-certified or label-eligible.

We do not replace the project workpaper or the IC memo.

We do not claim project-polygon precision today — country-level proxies are labelled as such on every panel.

We do not adjudicate FPIC — the procedural checklist flags where a DD analyst should pull project documents (PDD, monitoring reports, consultation records).

NAMED GAPS · v0.4 ROADMAP

The seams we ship with — and how to close them.

GapTodayv0.4 plan
Indigenous overlap dark for uncurated projectsBundled overlay onlyNative Land paid API key wired
News scoring keyword-basedTopic + claim co-occurrence (v0.3)LLM-per-article claim classifier; multilingual sources
Environmental + governance country-levelWorld Bank + TI CPIGLAD alerts at project polygon + WGI percentiles
Litigation severity not weightedFlat +3 per caseInjunction > pending > dismissed
No recency decay on newsUniform 24-month windowExponential decay exp(−days/365)
No developer-level aggregationPer-project onlyDeveloper portfolio rollup
Watch the walkthroughRead the strategic brief